Lenexa, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS63 KEAX 100918
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
418 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today, but low humidity will keep conditions relatively
  comfortable.
- Hot and humid on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
  90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday; severe
  weather not anticipated.
- Warm/hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights and winds shows
the mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley,
with our CWA on the western periphery of the trough within
northwest mid level flow. At the surface, high pressure has
yielded light and variable winds and temperatures in the 50s
with some patchy fog across the area. The trough across the
Great Lakes continues to slide eastward throughout the day
today, with mid level ridging and higher heights building in
from the west southwest. This will send temperatures into the
mid 80s this afternoon, but with dew points remaining in the mid
50s, conditions should remain relatively comfortable.

By Wednesday, mid level heights increase further with the
surface high shifting eastward. This will usher in southerly low
level return flow, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s
to near 90 degrees (NBM 75th percentile for MaxT at MCI is 91)
and dew points increasing into the upper 60s, yielding a hot and
humid Wednesday afternoon with heat indices increasing into the
low to mid 90s.

For Thursday, a progressive shortwave trough will move across
the northern Plains and into the upper Mississippi Valley, with
a weak mid/upper low developing over the Oklahoma/Texas area.
These features will yield increased (25 knot) south
southwesterly 850 mb flow and some isentropic upglide over the
CWA, and with warm and humid conditions providing instability
and PWATs on the order of 1.8 inches, showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. By Friday, the
mid/upper low across OK/TX migrates to the northeast toward the
Ozarks, which will once again bring chances for showers and
storms to the area. At this time, guidance is not particularly
bullish on heavy rain, but given the high PWATs, cannot entirely
rule out some isolated locations getting some decent rain
amounts, and WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
nudging northward toward Linn County KS and Bates County MO for
Thursday and for areas along and south of a Butler to Moberly
line for Friday. With very weak wind shear, severe weather is
not anticipated.

As we head into the weekend and early next week, guidance
suggests a large mid level high setting up shop over the Desert
Southwest with associated ridging across much of the western
CONUS with our region on the eastern periphery of this ridge.
Daily high temperatures should generally remain in the mid 80s
(interquartile ranges at MCI for MaxT between roughly 82 and 88
degrees for Saturday and Sunday, increasing to 85 and 92
degrees, respectively, for Monday) with humid conditions
continuing. Overnight forecast package has mostly 20% or less
PoP for Saturday and Sunday, with rain chances increasing for
Monday night into Tuesday morning as a shortwave trough is
progged by some models (namely the 00z GFS) to move from the
northern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds
will be mainly light and variable.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...WFO LSX